Looking through the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, I was struck by the forecasts they gave for gross debt/GDP ratios.
Italy is forecast to be at 114% in 2016, down from 121% now, while America rises from 100% to 115%. Europe is forecast to drop to 87% from 89%.
And yet America’s 10 year bonds yield 2% against Italy’s 5.6%.
Both heading to the same place, but a massive difference in investor perception.
I have to think that if the Italian Government sorts itself out, this crisis could be managed and the debt yields would drop significantly. Or alternatively America is in a lot more trouble than we are led to believe.
