Ma non era Mario Monti il leader voluto e apprezzato dalla finanza internazionale? A leggere gli ultimi report delle più importanti banche d’affari proprio non si direbbe. Nomura, Rbs e Credit Suisse, infatti, si augurano che esca vittoriosa dalle urne una maggioranza di centrosinistra guidata da Pier Luigi Bersani.
Per Alastair Newton, analista geopolitico della banca nipponica Nomura, con un forte consenso popolare Bersani potrebbe portare avanti meglio di Monti le riforme di cui l’Italia ha bisogno:
A government with solid democratic legitimacy in the form of a majority popular vote could have more leverage to pursue the sort of structural reforms which Italy urgently needs to boost growth – in our view, the real issue rather than debt and deficit reduction. In this respect we note that as economy minister in the 2006-08 Prodi administration, Mr Bersani promoted relevant reforms – albeit unsuccessfully at that time within the context of a divided and unstable left-of-centre coalition. It could be that, having secured the leadership of the BC coalition through a strongly contested primary election (in the wake of which the BC has united behind him), Mr Bersani would be better placed this time around, were he to secure an election victory, than he was five years ago and than a Monti-led government would be.
Gli fa eco Alberto Gallo, capo della ricerca macro di Royal Bank of Scotland, secondo cui, con una coalizione guidata dal Partito democratico, si allontana lo spettro della richiesta di aiuti a Bruxelles attraverso l’Omt, acronimo che indica le operazioni con cui Francoforte comprerà bond governativi da 1 a 3 anni sul mercato secondario:
The most likely outcome, in our view, is that Monti will join a centre party like the UdC, which has been very supportive of him over the past months, and eventually become part of the centre-left coalition. […]. Will Italy need OMT support? With a PD-led coalition, we think this is unlikely. The Italian economy benefits from several structural strengths, including high savings, a relatively small banking system, low household leverage and small regional budgets. A stable coalition, especially with Monti, will not need to ask for OMT support.
Giovanni Zanni, director european economics a Credit Suisse, è convinto invece che una vittoria di Bersani non sarebbe interpretata negativamente dai mercati:
The PD is supporting Monti, although it seeks more pro-growth and redistributive policies, similar to what is advocated by the French Socialists and the German SPD, for example. Bersani’s PD is also pro-euro and pro-European. A victory from the central-left, the current central scenario, should thus be seen as a neutral or mild positive by markets. Mr Bersani was a minister for economic development under the Prodi governments, where he pushed through several liberalisation decrees.
In ogni caso, ricorda Daniele Antonucci, senior european economist a Morgan Stanley, c’è ancora molto da fare per avviare il Paese verso la strada della crescita. Ed è questo che guardano i mercati più di ogni altra cosa. Che sia Bersani, Monti, o chi per loro.
The scar left by the recession is likely to have damaged the supply side of the economy, thus further lowering potential growth – to just 0.5%. Mr. Monti’s track-record on the structural reforms has been mixed, in our view. They are certainly a good step in the right direction. Yet, both in number and scope, they could have been more far-reaching, i.e., they should have been broader and deeper to materially shift Italy’s future growth path.